Harnessing Big Data to Reveal Past Trends, Assess Present Risks, and Forecast Future Food Web Dynamics

Long-term, multi-trophic biological data are rare, but when available, they can provide transformative insights into ecological systems. By harnessing large-scale biomonitoring datasets, we can uncover past trends, identify present vulnerabilities, and anticipate future community dynamics. We leveraged long-term data from the San Francisco Bay Estuary to reveal patterns of phenological change, assess temporal and spatial patterns in ecological risk, and forecast food web dynamics following the return of an apex predator. Models that integrate historical patterns can enhance our understanding of the processes shaping estuarine food webs. Moreover, these insights can support proactive decision-making in a heavily altered and dynamic system.

Spatial capture-recapture for investigating an elusive species’ ecology

Understanding the population size of a species is critical for effective conservation policy. In the case of the snow leopard (Panthera uncia), it is the difference between it being classified as a vulnerable versus an endangered species in the IUCN Red list. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) is a robust statistical framework for estimating population size, and extensions of the model have enabled inference on ecological parameters beyond density.

This talk will serve as a gentle introduction to SCR models, explaining their structure and illustrating how they are robust when density is the primary parameter of interest. After many attempts at breaking the model, I identify one instance where it can fail, and propose a way to resolve it. 

Surveying snow leopards in their rugged habitat presents significant challenges, making it difficult to implement multiple surveys. I will illustrate how extensions of SCR models can be leveraged to infer ecological parameters beyond density, focusing on applications with direct management implications. Finally, I will discuss recent advances in integrating movement into SCR models, research I aim to build on during my postdoc at ESPM. 

Life and the Imitation of Life:
Play, performance, and the moving image in urban coyote ‘management,’ and some preliminary thoughts on the liveliness of river restoration and the fishing ‘fly’ 

In the following talk, I will utilize a variety of methods, mixing scientific references with concepts borrowed from disciplines like semiotics, psychoanalysis, and political theory, all for the purposes of deconstructing the common Coyote Management Plan (CMP). Though these plans are now a ubiquitous feature of urban ecologies like Los Angeles and are drafted and used by cities in the hopes of mitigating locally intensifying human-coyote conflict, over the course of my fieldwork I’ve come to notice how they also provide the unconscious, material inspiration for structuring people’s self-understanding (and so the wider political fabric of the city as well). By attempting to regulate two principal forces within human-coyote relations, firstly, to prevent people from feeding coyotes, and secondly, by encouraging people to haze coyotes instead, these plans also offer prescriptions for how people should appear and disappear to coyotes in a “playful” manner. In asking not whether these plans work for their stated purpose of “keeping coyotes wild,” and instead towards what it might mean for these plans to work the first place (both for people and for coyotes), I hope to demonstrate the potential of human-coyote management as a site of multispecies encounter that may radically transform urban ecological systems for the flourishing of more biodiversity and environmental justice simultaneously.

Lastly, I’d like to offer some very preliminary thoughts on the nature of river restoration, and to propose the playful performance of the fly fishing “fly” as one possible source of inspiration for developing lively river restoration practices with anadromous fish.

SPEAKER

All talks held in Mulford Room 36 from 12noon-1pm, zoom links are sent out
the week of the talk, email berkeleywildlife@berkeley.edu to be added to the
email list
 

 Urban areas are currently expanding to accommodate the growing human population, with up to 1.5 million km² of additional impervious surfaces projected to be added to the Earth's surface by 2050. As impervious surfaces increase globally, the human-wildlife interface will shrink, subjecting wildlife to the myriad social-ecological pressures of cities and underscoring the need to understand the drivers of biodiversity and wildlife ecology for effective management and conservation initiatives. Moreover, as we aim to protect and bolster biodiversity amidst a global decline in species, investigating how biodiversity data coverage varies across landscapes will be critical in filling gaps and ensuring equitable conservation. Though cities are famously characterized by inequities and legacies of injustice, little work has incorporated these perspectives into wildlife ecology. This presentation will highlight the deeply interconnected futures of humans and wildlife by exploring how legacies of injustice and societal inequity shape urban ecosystem health, biodiversity data, and wildlife ecology.

Traditional ecology focuses on relationships between species and their environment. However,
today, humans and human systems increasingly interact with these relationships, making humans
an essential part of ecology worth acknowledgment and understanding. Here, I will present my
efforts to bridge the foundations of ecology with practice to better reflect the realities of our
integrated human and natural world. I will share a case study of the New Zealand sea lion, and the
complications that arise in modeling its future geographic range in areas where human-wildlife
interactions are inevitable. Beyond this example, I show that modeling human influence on species
distributions is severely under-practiced. Based on a synthesis and analysis of thousands of
ecological studies from the past two decades, I reveal some surprising gaps and inconsistencies.
Popular methods and applications such as species distribution modeling and conservation
planning reflect ecological theories such as the niche. I conclude with some proposed next steps
for better integrating human systems into such theories to enhance efforts toward coexistence
and sustainability.

The National Park Services' decision to reintroduce wolves (Canis lupus) to Isle Royale in 2018
presented a unique opportunity to study how large carnivores influence a simple, insular
community of carnivores, red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and martens (Martes americana). Although
the community is simple, Isle Royale features a highly dynamic seasonal flux of resources and
extensive tourism in the summer. To understand the effects that the wolf reintroduction had on
foxes and martens, we quantified their demography, space-use, and diet before and after the wolf
reintroduction. Furthermore, we quantified the seasonal diet of foxes to test the degree to which
wolves and humans mediate dietary seasonality through trophic facilitation and human food
subsidies. Wolves did not impact fox demography, though foxes increased their use of campsites
initially following the reintroduction, which reflected an increase in human food consumption.
Martens subsequently responded by increasing in abundance and exhibiting a broader space use.
Finally, the resource use of foxes was highly seasonal, consuming mostly large prey (moose and
snowshoe hares Lepus americanus) during winter and small prey, berries, and human foods in
summer. Our results suggest that the cascading effects of apex carnivore reintroductions are at
first strong, but then relax. Importantly, though large carnivores strongly impact subordinate
carnivores, seasonal resources coupled with human recreation can provide a buffer for
meso-carnivores, which can have strong consequences on carnivore community structure.

Recent advances in our understanding of Adelie penguin ecology and the Southern Ocean ecosystem in the context of climate change

Point Blue Conservation Science has been studying the ecology of the southern ocean since the early 1970's, with ongoing studies largely focused on the population dynamics of Adelie penguins. After several decades of relative stability in the Ross Sea region, sea ice has rapidly declined there over the past 7 years, joining the rest of the world's polar seas. I will summarize the context of our research and report recent findings leveraging advances in technology, computer science, and perspectives gained from long-term ecological observations.

Social-Ecological Practice Theory & Human-Wildlife Interactions: People, Cattle, and Predators in Makgadikgadi, Botswana

The intertwinement of ecological and social processes is complex; conservation projects aiming to overcome human-wildlife conflict may in fact risk exacerbating it and causing injustices whenever either process is only superficially addressed. Using a case study in north-central Botswana, we provide a nuanced approach in conservation and ecology which intentionally considers the social sciences, using a framework we call ‘Social-Ecological Practice Theory’. First, we demonstrate differences of wildlife activity in space and time across communal, private, and protected areas using a 180-camera trap survey. We then provide the context to why this occurs through the study of cattle rearing logics, based on our findings of 80 semi-structured interviews of local community members across the region and GPS collars on select cattle herds. We then use our social and ecological understanding of the landscape to help us predict perceived predator presence in the area. Using theories and methodologies based in anthropology, social sciences, and ecology we hope to demonstrate that this integrative framework helps us to better understand human-carnivore interactions and progress how we approach applied management and conservation.

MONTH    DAY    SPEAKER

Jan               19         Fengyi "Freda"Guo *

Feb               9          James Prosek *

Feb               23         Axel Hunnicutt CDFW Wolf Coordinator, "The return of an apex predator: California’s conservation of gray wolves"

Mar               8          Intro to The Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science & Environment (DSE), developing data-enabled solutions to our most pressing environmental challenges

Mar               22         Daniel Okamoto, Assistant Professor of Global Change Biology, "Coastal oceans under global change" 

Apr               5           Emily Chen Finishing Talk, Population dynamics of Chinook salmon and implications for fisheries and water in the state

Apr               19         Mitch Serota Finishing Talk, "Pumas and penguins: how an unexpected interaction reshapes the ecology of coastal Patagonia"

May               3         Jessie Moravek Finishing Talk, "Freshwater restoration in California: Exploring how floodplain reconnection, habitat restoration, and species reintroduction influence freshwater resources at a landscape scale"

May               10         Avery Shawler Finishing Talk,  "Ecological & social challenges of wolf-livestock conflict: wolf-elk interactions & local perspectives in the eastern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem"

* Please note, most talks are from 12noon-1pm, but 1/19 is from 1-2pm and 2/9 is from 10-11am.  We will update the events page with talk details the week of each talk.

To combat ongoing declines of biodiversity worldwide, conservationists are increasingly looking to restore wildlife populations, with a central objective to re-establish their ecological influence. However, the ecological outcomes of wildlife restoration have been inconsistent, in part due to the significant ecosystem changes that have occurred over the time following the extirpation of target species. In Patagonia, the local eradication of mainland predators at the turn of the 20th century is believed to have triggered the expansion of Magellanic penguin colonies across the Atlantic coast of Argentina. Today, large-scale rewilding and conservation initiatives in the region have led to local recoveries of mainland predators, like the puma, leading to a novel predator-prey dynamic between pumas and penguins. This presentation will highlight the impact of this novel marine resource on puma behavior and density, as well as its impact on their primary prey, guanacos. 

Nearshore marine ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet, host diverse assemblages of ecologically, economically, and culturally important species, and also lie on the front lines of climate change.   Yet like many ecosystems, classic models of organismal and ecological dynamics have often underpredicted effects of harvest and climate.  I will present recent work showing how measuring and modeling processes such as energetic plasticity, acclimatization, consumer-resource dynamics, and metapopulation structure can substantially improve our understanding of how individuals, populations, and ecosystems respond to climate change and harvest.

Please join us Today, 2/23/24 from 12noon-1pm for a talk from Axel Hunnicutt, CDFW Wolf Coordinator for a talk titled:  "The Return of an Apex Predator: California’s Conservation of Gray Wolves,"

The talk will take place in 36 Mulford Hall.  Or you can join by zoom using this link.  Please see below for a short description of the talk.

In this presentation, I will speak on the historic return and current status of gray wolves in California, and the social, ecological, and economic challenges posed by their recolonization. I’ll share CDFW’s efforts for conservation and recovery planning of the species, as well as our efforts in the field of population monitoring and community engagement. Lastly, as the new state wolf coordinator, whose career has largely been spent working with African carnivores, I’ll link the parallels of predator management and conflict across continents, highlighting the hope of success for the future of wolves in California.
 

Migratory landbirds are experiencing dramatic population declines in North America, but little is known about the important habitats they use as stopover sites during migration. We used data from weather surveillance radar to map seasonal stopover densities of landbirds across the eastern U.S. during spring and autumn migrations. We identified stopover hotspots covering 2.47 million hectares that consistently support high densities of migrants across years. However, only 16.7% of these sites are hotspots in both seasons. Deciduous forest is the most important habitat type, with high concentrations of birds in forest fragments embedded in broadly deforested regions, especially in spring. While protected areas have higher stopover densities of birds, only 1/3 of hotspots are covered, and many of these protected areas are still subject to extractive uses. We also found evidence that the agricultural Midwest is an anthropogenic migration barrier for many landbirds, affecting their flight and stopover behaviors. In summary, a well-distributed network of well-protected stopover areas, complementing conservation efforts on the breeding and wintering grounds, is essential to sustaining healthy populations of migratory landbirds in North America.

Our speaker for this week - is Dr. Sudeep Chandra, A Professor of Limnology in the Biology Department at the University of Nevada, Reno (USA), Sudeep Chandra serves as Director of the University’s Global Water Center: Solutions for Sustainability, the Ozmen Institute for Global Studies, and is the former Co-Director for the Lake Tahoe Science Advisory Council.

In his seminar, Sudeep will discuss efforts to conserve Lake Tahoe

Please join us on Friday (10/27) from 12-1pm for our next installment in the Wildlife Seminar Series.

This week's speaker is Marisa McGrew, Fisheries & Natural Resources Specialist for the Shawir Darrudaluduk Natural Resources Department. McGrew's seminar is titled: "Gou’daw (Pacific lamprey) in the Eel River"

Harshad Karandikar, ESPM Grad Student

Kendall Calhoun, ESPM Grad Student

Anders Goksøyr, Professor and Fulbright Arctic Chair, U. Bergen